Wake up while it’s still yesterday in North America. This is not unusual as there’s an eight hour time difference between us and Central Standard time. Does mean that the polls are closed in all American time zones and preliminary results are coming in, although not initially predictions on the swing states. About the only joy is in the fact that we are not pollsters, all of whom seem to have blown it majorly.
About as far out, though a shade less embarrassingly, as the 1948 polling prediction that Thomas Dewey would beat Harry Truman. Thomas who? Indeed. But before the vote was counted the Chicago Daily Tribune had already gone to press and the morning headline read DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN. And no, I don’t remember that election. But do know part, at least, of the reason that the pollsters got it wrong. They relied heavily on telephone surveys at a time when owning a telephone was far from universal and the results were skewed in favour of those with higher incomes.
So now begin the post mortems on this election.