It’s official, re the rain. This is the fourth rainiest winter in Cyprus since 1901. Now that’s a great statistic, if not such a great winter. And it’s easy to be wrong about seasonal weather. There’s a kind of mental rounding off - or up - that takes place, so that memory holds iconic rather than average days. And retrospectively summer is all picnic and beach.
The economists are, surprisingly, much worse about statistical variation than the weathermen. You don’t hear the weather presenter saying that this is the wettest (or coldest, or warmest) day this month. On record, maybe. But economists seem to be drama majors at heart, announcing breathlessly that the pound - or euro or yen or whatever - is the highest (or lowest) it’s been for - wait for it two months. And that would be the highest by perhaps half a cent. Now fourth highest since 1901, or even 2001, would be a stat worth focusing on. And regarding North American predictions of a disastrous drop of the euro, can only see them as false hopes. Wishing no one ill, but we spend over a third of our life in euro territory. Have been listening to North American foreboding for years while seeing little evidence when exchanging money.