Friday, 22 January 2016

Tuesday, January 19/2016

Article from Davos, via Reuters, with commentary by B Jaworski in brackets:

Cyprus will make an unprecedented joint appeal to the world's political and business elite in Davos on Thursday to support their efforts to reach a settlement to their decades-old dispute.

Cyprus leaders to make joint Davos appeal for peace support   *[Wonderful! New captive audience - Brussels' patience long since exhausted]

U.N. and European officials say the prospects of finally reaching a peace deal to resolve one of the oldest frozen conflicts on the planet are better than at any time since Greek Cypriots rejected a U.N. peace plan in 2004.  *[Not that they were good then].

There's an interest among the leaders involved. Both Turkey and Greece see advantages to moving on,"  [special UN envoy] Eide told Reuters.  *[Well, optimism is his job].

The east Mediterranean island has been divided since Turkey invaded the north in 1974 in response to a short-lived coup in Nicosia inspired by Greece's then military rulers.

Cyprus joined the European Union in 2004 despite the Greek Cypriot vote against reunification. *[Major error on the part of a weary EU - when negotiating never assume the sensitive issues will sort themselves out later]

However, its relations with Turkey have remained frozen, efforts to reduce the economic isolation of Turkish Cypriot northern Cyprus have stalled and Nicosia has blocked much of Ankara's EU accession negotiations over the continued dispute. *[All too predictably - what WERE they thinking in Brussels?]

Peace efforts gained a boost with the election of two leaders who are personally committed to a negotiated settlement, as well as the discovery of large offshore natural gas deposits off Cyprus which would be easier to exploit if there is a deal. *[Finally a little incentive, but don't hold your breath].

A reunited Cyprus would also need international investment to help the peace process work. Reconstructing one resort town abandoned in the conflict is estimated to cost billions of euros, and compensation may also be required for people unable to reclaim their properties. *[Dream on, Cyprus, do you have ANY idea where you fall in the list of EU priorities?].

The regional strategic environment is more favorable because Greece's leftist government is less nationalistic than its predecessors and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has tamed the military and is keen to improve relations with the EU.  *[And no serious problems in Greece or Turkey at the moment. They're free to concentrate on Cyprus].

Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu is due to address the Davos audience right after the Cypriot leaders and is likely to reaffirm his country's commitment to support a settlement this year, which would also remove an obstacle to closer EU ties.  *[They'll be lucky to be allowed to stay in Nato. Forget the EU].

Some diplomats in Ankara hope for agreement on the text of a deal before Cypriot parliamentary elections in May, and a referendum soon after that.  *[These are the same realists who would rather destroy Kurds than ISIS and can't resist poking the Russian bear].

Anastasiades and Akinci  *[still referred to in southern Cypriot news broadcasts as the so-called president of the illegal regime - that's how friendly things are]. are not expected to announce any agreement on Thursday because much detailed work remains on sensitive issues such as territory, the return of property or compensation.  *[So far they've agreed on catering for the talks?]

An international reconstruction fund with EU and private money could be a vital component. *[Swamp land also on offer]

"We have gone from harvesting relatively low-hanging fruit into the hard core deepest areas. We're in tougher terrain now and both leaders will have to make concessions," Eide said.  *[Begin of preparation for disaster]

An agreement between the two leaders would have to be ratified in referendums in each of the communities and implemented over time with international support.  *[That was where it fell apart last time]. 

Anastasiades has not yet really begun to sell the benefits of a potential deal to a skeptical Greek Cypriot electorate.  *[Wisely. He's had cardiac problems. And said electorate already unhappy that both leaders went to Davos, just like equal human beings].

Asked why prospects for a settlement were better now than in 2004, Eide said: "The one major difference is that this time the process is led by the Cypriots and their leaders. My role is to facilitate but we (United Nations) are not putting down our own proposals. Every word is written and agreed to by the sides."  *[EU, at least, has learned not to beat its head against a wall].